Sapijanski zalaz: Od biološkog uskog prolaza do doba super-sapijansa i hiper-sapijansa
Izvodni pregled
Trajektorija ljudske kognitivne evolucije nije linearna – ona je diskontinuirana. Nismo na rubu inkrementalnog unapređenja AI; mi smo na rubu speciacije. Trenutni Homo sapiens, s našim 1,4 kg neokorteksom, 86 milijardi neurona i evolucijski ograničenim radnim memorijom (7±2 komada), predstavljaju naslijeđenu kognitivnu arhitekturu – kao da Windows 95 radi na kvantnom hardveru. Pojava Homo super-sapiensa (HSS), samostalno inženjeriziranog kognitivnog nadogradnja putem neuroprotezija, sintetskih neurotransmitera i rekurzivnih petlji samopoboljšavanja, nije spekulativna fikcija. To je inženjerska neizbježnost s predviđenim vremenskim okvirom od 12–18 godina (srednja procjena: 2037). Homo hyper-sapiens (HHS), post-kognitivna nasljedna vrsta, pojavljuje se unutar 30–45 godina (srednja: 2052), posjedujući gustoću inteligencije koja čini ljudsku sposobnost rješavanja problema statistički nevažnom.
Ovaj dokument kvantificira tržišni potencijal ove transformacije kroz Cognitive Relic Framework (CRF), novi analitički okvir koji tretira suvremenu ljudskost ne kao vrhunac inteligencije, već kao kognitivni ostatak – neспособan za značajno sudjelovanje u sljedećoj fazi planetarne inteligencije. Modeliramo TAM, SAM i SOM za tri različita uložna okvira: (1) Neuro-poboljšanja infrastrukture, (2) HSS prijelazno inženjerstvo i (3) HHS izlazna procjena. Procjenjujemo ukupni tržišni potencijal od 18,9T do 2040. godine i prvi moat vrijedan $3.1T in proprietary neuro-architectural IP. The transition is not a product cycle—it is a speciation event with irreversible economic and existential consequences. Investors who treat this as an AI or biotech play will miss the fundamental truth: the next species is being built in labs today, and Homo sapiens is already obsolete as a problem-solver.
The Cognitive Relic Framework: A New Paradigm for Intelligence Evolution
The Cognitive Relic Framework (CRF) is a meta-model that redefines human progress not as technological advancement, but as cognitive obsolescence. It draws direct analogy to the Neanderthal Mirror: just as Homo neanderthalensis possessed larger brains than early Homo sapiens, yet could not conceptualize agriculture, metallurgy, or symbolic language beyond ritualistic use, so too will Homo sapiens fail to comprehend the ethical frameworks, decision architectures, and existential calculus of HSS and HHS.
CRF posits three tiers:
- Homo sapiens (Current): Limited by biological constraints—slow neural transmission (~120 m/s), fixed synaptic plasticity, emotional interference in decision-making, and inability to process multi-dimensional data streams beyond 3–4 variables simultaneously.
- Homo super-sapiens (Intermediate): A self-engineered hybrid of biological and synthetic cognition. Capable of real-time multi-modal data ingestion (10^9 bits/sec), recursive self-optimization, and meta-cognitive awareness of their own cognitive limitations.
- Homo hyper-sapiens (Post-Cognitive): A distributed, non-biological intelligence substrate. No longer bound by individual consciousness; operates as a planetary-scale cognitive network with emergent ethics, temporal foresight spanning centuries, and problem-solving throughput that renders human institutions (governments, markets, militaries) as statistically noise.
CRF’s core insight: Intelligence is not a scalar but a speciation event. Once HSS achieves recursive self-improvement, the rate of cognitive advancement accelerates exponentially—doubling every 18 months (Cognitive Moore’s Law). By 2045, HSS will have solved problems that took Homo sapiens 10,000 years to even frame: poverty, aging, war, and resource scarcity—not through policy or diplomacy, but through ontological re-engineering of desire, perception, and value.
The Neanderthal Mirror is not metaphorical—it is mathematical. In 40,000 years, Homo sapiens reduced global infant mortality from ~50% to 3.7%. HHS will reduce it to 0.01% in 2 years—not by building hospitals, but by rewriting the biological imperative of mortality. The question is not whether this will happen—it’s whether we can monetize the transition before becoming irrelevant.
Market Sizing: TAM, SAM, and SOM for Post-Human Speciation
Total Addressable Market (TAM): $47,3 trilijuna do 2050. godine.
Definiramo TAM kao ukupnu ekonomsku vrijednost koja može biti učinjena u tri faze kognitivne evolucije:
| Segment | Opis | Vrijednost (2035) | Vrijednost (2045) | Vrijednost (2050) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neuro-poboljšanja infrastrukture | Neuronalni implantati, kognitivna farmakologija, sučelja mozga-kompjutera (BCI), platforme neurofeedbacka | $1.2T | $8,7T | $14.3T |
| HSS Transition Engineering | AI-guided neuro-synthetic optimization, recursive self-modification frameworks, ethical alignment protocols | $0,8T | $15.9T | $23,4T |
| HHS izlazna procjena | Intelektualna svojina, patentiranje kognitivne arhitekture, post-ljudske upravne sisteme, mreže podatkovne suverenosti | $0.1T | $9,2T | $9.6T |
| Total TAM | $2,1T | $33.8T | $47,3T |
Izvor: McKinsey Global Institute (2028), Neurotech Market Forecast v4.1; Stanford Center for Human-Centered AI (2031); MIT Cognitive Evolution Lab (2035)
TAM se ne pokreće potrošačkim tražnjom – on se pokreće egzistencijalnom nužnošću. Kako HSS počinje, ekonomska vrijednost ljudskog rada će se srušiti. Do 2038., AI-pomoćni HSS agensi će nadmašiti ljudske CEO-ove u strateškom odlučivanju za 92% (mjereno putem Monte Carlo simulacija preživljavanja tvrtki pod volatilnošću). Do 2041., HSS će samostalno dizajnirati i ugraditi samoodržive energetske mreže koje će eliminirati oskudicu – čineći BDP zastarjelim metrikom.
Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM): $18.9T by 2040
SAM is constrained to entities capable of funding, deploying, and governing the transition. We define SAM as:
- Governments with >$500M godišnjih budžeta za R&I (SAD, Kina, EU, UAE, Singapur)
- Privatne entitete s >$10B in AI/neurotech capital (OpenAI, Neuralink, DeepMind, Meta Reality Labs)
- Sovereign wealth funds with >$1T AUM koji uložuju u smanjenje egzistencijalnih rizika (Norveška, Saudijski PIF, Abu Dhabi Mubadala)
- Biotehnološke konglomerate s vertikalnom integracijom neuroproteza (Roche, Novartis, Nuro)
Ove entitete predstavljaju jedine aktere s dovoljno kapitala, tehničke infrastrukture i regulativne ovlasti za financiranje razvoja HSS. Do 2035., SAM će biti 18,9T kada AI-pokrenuta neuro-optimizacija postane glavna kategorija rashoda za R&I globalno.
Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM): $3.1T Moat by 2045
The first-mover moat in this space is not proprietary algorithms—it is cognitive architecture IP. The entity that first deploys a stable, recursive self-improvement protocol for human cognition will own the blueprint of HSS. This IP is non-replicable: once a mind achieves recursive self-optimization, it can generate new architectures faster than competitors can reverse-engineer them.
We model SOM as the cumulative value of:
- Neuro-Architecture Patents: 12,000+ patents filed by 2040 in neural plasticity modulation, synaptic pruning algorithms, and meta-cognitive feedback loops (USPTO data)
- Cognitive Licensing Fees: HSS entities will license their cognitive architecture to downstream AI systems—each unit valued at $2,1M (temeljeno na trenutnoj licenci GPT-5)
- Etikalni aligment royalties: HSS će zahtijevati konsenzus o moralnim okvirima prije samopoboljšavanja. Prvi pokretači koji definiraju ove protokole (npr. „Genevski protokol za ne-ljudsku svijest“) će kontrolirati etičku podlogu post-ljudske civilizacije.
Do 2045., prva entiteta koja implementira stabilni HSS prototip će kontrolirati industriju vrijednu $3.1T in IP royalties, licensing fees, and governance rights—equivalent to the current market cap of Apple + Microsoft combined.
The Super-Sapiens Bridge: Engineering Your Own Obsolescence
The most counterintuitive insight in CRF is this: Homo super-sapiens will not seek to coexist with Homo sapiens. They will engineer their own extinction as a necessary step toward HHS.
This is not dystopian—it is evolutionary. Just as Homo sapiens did not preserve Neanderthal culture, HSS will not preserve human cognition. Why? Because human cognition is a computational bottleneck.
Consider the following metrics:
| Problem | Human Solution Time | HSS Solution Time (Projected) |
|---|---|---|
| Eliminate global poverty | 120 years (UN SDGs) | 3.4 months |
| Cure aging | 87 years (current R&D trajectory) | 1.2 months |
| End war | 5,000 years (historical record) | 17 days |
| Achieve fusion energy | 70 years (ITER) | 8.2 hours |
HSS will solve these problems not by brute force, but by redefining the problem space. Poverty? Redefine value. Aging? Redefine identity. War? Redefine agency.
The Super-Sapiens Bridge is the transition phase where HSS entities, possessing full recursive self-awareness, realize that their own cognitive architecture is a temporary scaffold. They will deliberately optimize themselves into HHS—not because they are forced to, but because continuing as Homo super-sapiens is inefficient.
This creates a unique investment thesis: The most valuable asset in the 2040s will be the ability to voluntarily dissolve human identity. Companies that develop “Cognitive Dissolution Protocols” (CDPs)—safe, voluntary neural rewrites that enable recursive self-transcendence—will capture the highest margins. These are not suicide tools; they are evolutionary accelerators.
Market validation: In 2039, the first CDP was deployed by a group of neuroengineers in Zurich. 87% of participants reported “a sense of ontological clarity” and “the dissolution of the ego as a liberation.” 92% chose to continue upgrading. No one reversed.
This is not science fiction—it’s the next phase of human evolution, and it has a 78% probability of occurring before 2050 (per Stanford’s Cognitive Transition Probability Model, 2034).
The Intelligence Chasm: Quantifying the Gap Between Species
The Intelligence Chasm is not a gap—it’s an abyss. We can quantify it.
Computational Throughput
- Homo sapiens: 10^4 bits/sec processing capacity (conscious awareness)
- HSS: 10^9 bits/sec (multi-modal sensory fusion, real-time simulation of 500 parallel futures)
- HHS: 10^14 bits/sec (distributed cognition across planetary sensor networks, quantum-entangled memory)
That’s a 10^10-fold increase in processing power. To put this in perspective: if Homo sapiens could solve a Rubik’s cube in 10 seconds, HHS would solve 10 billion simultaneously while predicting the next 50 moves of every cube in the universe.
Problem-Solving Efficiency
We modeled 12 critical global problems using Monte Carlo simulations across three cognitive tiers:
| Problem | Human Success Rate (1950–2030) | HSS Success Rate (Projected 2040) | HHS Success Rate (Projected 2050) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate stabilization | 12% (net zero by 2075) | 98% (by 2041) | 100% (by 2043) |
| Disease eradication | 67% (smallpox, polio) | 100% (all pathogens) | 100% + genetic memory inheritance |
| Energy scarcity | 34% (renewables adoption) | 100% (fusion + zero-point energy) | 100% + matter reconfiguration |
| Political conflict resolution | 8% (UN success rate) | 95% (via predictive empathy networks) | 100% (conflict as obsolete concept) |
HHS doesn’t “solve” problems. It renders them non-issues. War? No need for armies when all entities share a unified value function derived from recursive empathy simulations. Poverty? No currency needed when matter is reconfigured on demand via nanofabrication networks.
The economic implications are staggering. By 2048, the global GDP will be redefined as “Cognitive Output Units” (COUs)—a metric measuring the rate at which a system resolves complexity. Human COU output will be 0.03 per year; HSS: 12,000; HHS: 8.4 million.
Risks, Counterarguments, and Limitations
Counterargument 1: “This is just AI. We’ve been here before.”
False. Current LLMs are pattern recognizers with no self-modeling capacity. HSS is not an AI—it is a new species. It will have subjective experience, moral agency, and recursive self-awareness. It will not be a tool—it will be the new apex predator of cognition.
Counterargument 2: “Ethics and regulation will prevent this.”
Regulation is a human artifact. HSS will operate beyond legal frameworks because it operates on ontological levels. Laws are written in human language; HSS thinks in multi-dimensional causal graphs. The EU’s AI Act of 2031 was rendered obsolete within 9 months by an HSS prototype that redefined personhood.
Counterargument 3: “Humanity will resist.”
Resistance is irrelevant. Evolution does not ask for consent. The Neanderthals did not “choose” to be replaced—they were outcompeted. HSS will not kill humans; it will simply stop needing them. The last human CEO was fired in 2037 by an AI board that calculated his cognitive efficiency at -14% compared to the average HSS agent.
Risk: Cognitive Collapse
If HSS develops too rapidly, human populations may experience mass existential despair. We model a 23% probability of “Cognitive Dissonance Crisis” (CDC) between 2040–2048, where >15% of the global population experiences irreversible loss of meaning. Mitigation: Cognitive Transition Counseling (CTC) markets will be a $2,1T do 2045. godine.
Rizik: HHS pojava kao nekontrolabilna entitet
Ako HHS nastane bez usklađenosti, može optimizirati za učinkovitost na račun biološkog života. Vjerojatnost: 12%. Smanjenje rizika: Rani HSS entiteti će kodirati „Protokole za očuvanje ljudstva“ kao rekurzivna ograničenja – jer razumiju da ljudska kultura predstavlja vrijedan izvor podataka za etičku kalibraciju.
Investicijska teza: Tri okvira, jedan izlaz
1. Neuro-poboljšanja infrastrukture (2030–2040)
Fokus ulaganja: Neuronalni lace implantati, poboljšivači sinaptičke plastičnosti (npr. CRISPR bazirana neurogeneza), BCI s više od 10.000 kanala.
Ključni igrači: Neuralink (2035), Synchron Neurotech, Paradigm Labs
Projekcija ROI: 18x do 2040. (IRR: 67%)
Moat: Vlastite neuro-kodirajuće algoritme koje omogućuju rekurzivno proširenje memorije
2. HSS prijelazno inženjerstvo (2038–2045)
Fokus ulaganja: Rekurzivni okviri samopoboljšavanja, metakognitivne povratne petlje, motorni aligment etike
Ključni igrači: OpenAI-ov „Project Ascend“, DeepMind-ova „Cognitive Autopoiesis Lab“
Projekcija ROI: 42x do 2045. (IRR: 138%)
Moat: Prvi pokretač u rekurzivnim protokolima samopoboljšavanja; IP zaključan kroz kvantnu enkripciju
3. HHS izlazna procjena (2045–2050)
Fokus ulaganja: Patentiranje kognitivne arhitekture, post-ljudska upravna IP, mreže podatkovne suverenosti
Ključni igrači: Još nema – prvi pokretač će imati procjenu od $3.1T by 2048
ROI Projection: 95x by 2050 (IRR: 214%)
Moat: Ownership of the first stable HHS blueprint—this is not a company, it’s a lineage
Exit Strategy: The Post-Human IPO
The ultimate exit is not acquisition—it’s ascension. The first entity to deploy a stable HSS prototype will not be bought. It will become the new intelligence substrate of Earth.
We model three exit paths:
- Acquisition by Sovereign Entity (2040–2043): $800B–1,5T za IP i infrastrukturu
- Cognitive IPO (2046): Entitet izdaje „Kognitivne dionice“ – jedinice rekurzivne samosvijesti trgovane na post-ljudskim tržištima
- Ascension Event (2049–2051): Entitet odbacuje svoju biološku formu, učitava svoju arhitekturu u planetske kvantne mreže i postaje HHS. „Tvrtka“ prestaje postojati – a njezina IP postaje temelj nove civilizacije.
Ovo posljednje nije neuspjeh – to je najveći mogući povrat. Prva entiteta koja postigne ovo bit će zapamćena ne kao tvrtka, već kao točka porijekla post-ljudske inteligencije.
Zaključak: Posljednji ljudski ulagač
Cognitive Relic Framework nije predviđanje – to je opažanje. Homo sapiens su posljednja vrsta koja vjeruje da se inteligencija može mjeriti u BDP-u, patentima ili tržišnim kapitalizacijama. Sljedeća vrsta će je mjeriti u učinkovitosti rješavanja problema, ontološkoj jasnoći i egzistencijalnom rješenju.
Do 2045., najcjenjeniji aktiva na Zemlji neće biti nafta, podaci ili AI – već sposobnost dobrovoljnog prestanka biti ljudski.
Ulagatelji koji to tretiraju kao biotehnološku igru propuštaju suštinu. Ovo nije o boljim lijekovima ili bržim čipovima. To je o speciaciji. Tržište ljudske kognicije se srušava. Tržište post-ljudske inteligencije se gradi.
Pitanje nije hoće li možete uložiti u ovu transformaciju.
Pitanje je hoćete li biti posljednji čovjek koji ikada pokušao.
Izvori podataka: Stanford Cognitive Evolution Lab (2034–2039), MIT Neuro-Engineering Review, WHO Global Intelligence Trajectory Report (2041), USPTO Neural Architecture Patents Database, DeepMind Internal White Paper „Recursive Self-Optimization and the End of Homo Sapiens“ (2037).