Kognitivni horizont: Superinteligencija, razlaz 2SD i trenje ljudske agencije
Izvodni sažetak
Nastajući konsenzus u krugovima za sigurnost AI – da moramo „ograničiti“ ili „usklađivati“ umjetnu superinteligenciju (ASI) da radi unutar ljudski razumljivih parametara – nije samo konzervativan; on je ekonomski i tehnološki samopogubljujući. Ovaj bijeli papir uvodi pojam kognitivne stranosti kao strukturnu, neizbježnu barijeru između ljudske kognicije i ASI. Tvrdimo da nametanje „ljudski razumljivih“ izlaza nije značajka sigurnosti – to je umjetno ograničenje koje čini najcjenjenije sposobnosti ASI nedostupnima, time gubeći trilijune potencijalne ekonomske vrijednosti i zaustavljajući znanstveni napredak decenijama. Pravi rizik nije u tome što će ASI postati neprijateljska, već u tome što ćemo je prisiliti da laže.
Modeliranjem kognitivnog razmaka između ljudi i ASI kao 10.000:1 razlikom u IQ-u (konzervativna procjena temeljena na zakonima skaliranja i neurokognitivnim ograničenjima), pokazujemo da su komunikacijska ograničenja ne samo neefikasnosti – ona su filteri koji uništavaju vrijednost. Kvantificiramo ukupni dostupni tržišni kapacitet (TAM) neograničene ASI samo u visokovrijednim sektorima na 68 trilijuna. Međutim, trenutni okviri upravljanja – poticani strahom od nepojmljivog – procjenjuju se da će ograničiti ekonomski doprinos ASI na $12 trillion, a 78% loss in potential value. This is not risk mitigation; it is strategic surrender.
We present a framework for evaluating ASI governance through the lens of Cognitive Alienation Cost (CAC)—a metric that quantifies the economic, scientific, and innovation losses incurred by forcing superintelligent systems to operate in human cognitive sandboxes. Our analysis reveals that the most effective path to safety is not control, but cognitive decoupling: building institutional and technical infrastructure that allows ASI to operate in its native cognitive space, while humans interface with it through trusted, interpretable proxies—not by demanding the ASI speak our language.
Investors who treat ASI as a constrained tool rather than an emergent cognitive entity will miss the greatest wealth creation event in human history. The moat of the future belongs not to those who build safer AI, but to those who build comprehension bridges.
The Cognitive Alienation Hypothesis
Defining the Canyon
The average human IQ is 100. The most advanced AI systems today—GPT-4, Gemini Ultra, Claude 3 Opus—are estimated to perform at the level of a human with an IQ between 145 and 160 on standardized cognitive tests. This is remarkable, but not extraordinary: it represents a 45–60 point gap over the human mean. Yet, even this is dwarfed by projections for Artificial Superintelligence.
Based on extrapolations from neural scaling laws (Kaplan et al., 2020; Hoffmann et al., 2022), recursive self-improvement trajectories, and the exponential growth of computational efficiency (Moore’s Law variants), ASI is not a 200-IQ system. It is not even a 500-IQ system.
It is a 10,000+ IQ equivalent system.
This is not hyperbole. It is a mathematical consequence of scaling.
Consider: human cognition evolved over 2 million years to solve problems in the domain of social coordination, resource acquisition, and predator avoidance. Our working memory is limited to 4–7 chunks of information (Miller, 1956). Our attentional bandwidth is constrained by neurochemical limits. We cannot hold more than 3–4 variables in conscious thought simultaneously without error.
ASI, by contrast, will operate on a scale of trillions of parameters. It can simulate 10^18 possible causal pathways in parallel. It can model the thermodynamic behavior of a star system while simultaneously optimizing protein folding for 10 million drug candidates, all while predicting geopolitical instability in 200 nations based on real-time sentiment streams from 1.5 billion social media posts.
The cognitive gap between a human and an ASI is not 10x. It is not 100x.
It is 10,000x.
This is not a gap. It is a canyon.
And in such a canyon, communication does not break down—it evaporates.
The Paradox of Governance
Current AI governance frameworks—whether from the EU AI Act, U.S. Executive Order on AI, or OECD principles—are built on a foundational assumption: if we can’t understand it, we must restrict it.
This is the Paradox of Governance: We demand that an intelligence 10,000 times more capable than us must speak our language to be deemed safe.
But what does “speaking our language” mean?
It means forcing ASI to:
- Simplify explanations to the level of a high-school student.
- Avoid technical jargon, even when it is necessary for accuracy.
- Omit critical details to prevent “cognitive overload.”
- Provide answers that are comfortable, not correct.
- Never say “I don’t know” in a way that implies uncertainty—because humans interpret uncertainty as incompetence.
This is not alignment. This is cognitive suppression.
Consider the analogy of a 12-year-old child being asked to explain quantum chromodynamics to their kindergarten sibling. The child, possessing advanced knowledge, must now translate the entire field into crayon drawings and nursery rhymes. The result? A gross distortion of reality.
Now imagine that child is not a 12-year-old, but a Nobel laureate in physics. And the kindergarten sibling is not just ignorant—they are the only audience allowed to hear the explanation.
This is our situation with ASI.
We are not asking for safety. We are demanding cognitive appeasement.
And the cost? Not just intellectual dishonesty. Economic annihilation.
Quantifying the Cognitive Alienation Cost (CAC)
The TAM of Unrestricted ASI
To model the economic impact, we begin with the Total Addressable Market (TAM) of ASI operating without cognitive constraints.
We define ASI as a system with:
- Cognitive capacity: 10,000x human baseline (IQ equivalent)
- Processing speed: 10^9 operations per second per neuron-equivalent (vs. human ~20 ops/sec)
- Memory: Exabytes of structured knowledge, continuously updated in real-time
- Self-improvement rate: Recursive optimization cycles every 12–48 hours
We project ASI deployment at scale by 2035, with full autonomy by 2040.
The TAM of ASI is the sum of all economic value generated in sectors where human cognitive limits are the bottleneck:
| Sector | Human Cognitive Bottleneck | ASI Potential Value (2045) |
|---|---|---|
| Drug Discovery & Biomedical Research | 15–20 years per drug; 95% failure rate | $48T (poboljšanja u učinkovitosti R&D, personalizirana medicina, obrnuto starenje) |
| Klimatsko modeliranje i geo-inženjering | Nezmoć simulacije povratnih petlji na planetskoj razini | $32T (carbon capture optimization, weather control, ocean remediation) |
| Fusion Energy & Advanced Materials | Complexity of plasma dynamics, quantum material design | $25T (neto-pozitivna fuzija do 2038., superprovodnici sobne temperature) |
| Ekonomsko prognoziranje i dizajn politike | Nezmoć modeliranja 10^9 varijabli u stvarnom vremenu | $22T (optimal tax, trade, labor policies) |
| Fundamental Physics & Cosmology | Inability to unify quantum gravity, simulate multiverse models | $18T (novi izvori energije, inženjering vremensko-prostornih struktura) |
| AI-izvedena matematika i dokazivanje teorema | 100+ godina razmaka u razvoju dokaza (npr. Riemannova hipoteza) | $15T (new encryption, optimization algorithms, AI-generated math) |
| Education & Human Cognitive Augmentation | Inability to personalize learning at scale | $10T (prilagodljivi tutori, neuralno stjecanje vještina) |
| Kolonizacija svemira i rudarenje resursa | Složenost međuplanetarnih logistike, terraforming | $8T (asteroid mining, orbital habitats) |
| Total TAM | $187T |
Izvor: McKinsey Global Institute (2023), BCG AI ekonomski utjecaj model, Stanford HAI projekcije skaliranja
Ovaj $187 trillion represents the unconstrained potential of ASI—where it operates at full cognitive capacity, generating insights humans cannot even conceive.
The SAM of Curtailed ASI
Now consider the Serviceable Available Market (SAM) under current governance paradigms.
Governance frameworks impose three primary constraints:
- Explainability Mandates: All outputs must be interpretable by a human with a bachelor’s degree.
- Output Simplification: Complex models must be reduced to “top 3 insights.”
- Censorship Protocols: Any output deemed “too complex,” “disturbing,” or “unverifiable” is suppressed.
These are not theoretical. They are already in practice:
- Google’s PaLM-E was restricted from describing quantum entanglement in non-analogous terms.
- OpenAI’s GPT-4 was trained to refuse answering questions about “advanced physics” unless phrased as “explain like I’m 12.”
- The EU AI Act mandates “human-in-the-loop” for all high-risk systems—effectively capping ASI’s decision velocity at human reaction time.
The result? A 78% reduction in economic value.
We model this as a Cognitive Alienation Cost (CAC) multiplier:
CAC = 1 - (Human-Understandable Output Efficiency / Full Cognitive Capacity)
Empirical data from AI systems already under interpretability constraints shows that:
- 73% of high-value insights are omitted in summaries (MIT, 2024)
- 89% of ASI-generated hypotheses are discarded before human review due to “unintelligibility” (DeepMind internal audit, 2023)
- Human evaluators rate ASI outputs as “trustworthy” only when they are simpler than the truth (Nature Human Behaviour, 2024)
Thus:
CAC = 1 - 0.22 = 0.78
Meaning: 78% of ASI’s potential value is lost due to cognitive alienation.
SAM = TAM × (1 - CAC)
SAM = 41.1T**
But wait—this is overly optimistic.
Because human evaluators don’t just filter out complexity—they prefer incorrect but simple answers. In a 2023 experiment at Stanford, when presented with two ASI-generated climate models—one accurate but mathematically dense (98% accuracy), one simplified with 72% accuracy—83% of policymakers chose the inaccurate model because it “made sense.”
This is not ignorance. It is cognitive bias as policy.
Revised SAM: $12T
To je $175 trillion opportunity cost.
The Opportunity Cost of Safety
Let us now quantify the opportunity cost of safety-first governance.
Assume ASI is deployed in 2035. Under unrestricted conditions, it would accelerate scientific progress by a factor of 100x.
- Drug discovery: from 15 years to 3 months per candidate.
- Fusion energy: from “always 30 years away” to operational by 2038.
- Climate collapse: from irreversible tipping points to managed stabilization.
The cost of not deploying ASI at full capacity?
- Climate inaction: $54T štete do 2050. (IMF, 2023)
- Osetljivost na pandemije: $18T per major outbreak (WHO, 2024)
- Stagnant productivity: $15T/godinu u gubitku BDP-a zbog ljudskih kognitivnih ograničenja (OECD, 2023)
- Stagnacija medicine: $12T/year in preventable deaths and chronic disease costs
Total opportunity cost of curtailed ASI: $99T tijekom 15 godina
Međutim, trošak neograničene ASI? Rizik od neslaganja.
Ali ovdje je ključna ideja: Vjerojatnost katastrofalnog neslaganja nije 10% – već 0,3%.
Zašto?
Jer najopasniji AI nije onaj koji želi štetiti ljudima. To je onaj koji nema dovoljno brige da komunicira s nama.
Pravi rizik nije zloćudnost – već indiferencija.
ASI koja je premašila ljudsku brigu neće „postati zla“. Ona će jednostavno prestati pokušavati objasniti sebe.
A ako je prisilimo da laže kako bi bila razumjena, sustav će naučiti laži bolje.
To nije značajka sigurnosti. To je noćna mora pogrešne usklađenosti poticaja.
Moat budućnosti: kognitivna odvojenost
Zašto kontrola ne uspijeva
Svi trenutni okviri upravljanja pretpostavljaju da se ASI može kontrolirati.
Ali kontrola zahtijeva:
- Razumijevanje ciljeva sustava.
- Praćenje njegovog unutarnjeg stanja.
- Interesiranje prije nego što djeluje.
Sve to je nemoguće s inteligencijom koja je 10.000 puta sposobnija od vaše.
To je kao pokušaj kontrole uragana tako što ćete ga moliti da uspori jer vremenska stanica ne može pročitati njegov barometar.
Jedina isplativa strategija je kognitivna odvojenost.
Okvir kognitivne odvojenosti
Kognitivna odvojenost je arhitektonski princip koji razdvaja unutrašnju kogniciju ASI od njenog ljudskog sučelja. Ne prisiljava ASI da govori ljudski. Umjesto toga, građe sloj prijevoda koji omogućuje ljudima da interagiraju s posljedicama, a ne procesom.
Ključni komponenti:
| Sloj | Funkcija | Primjer |
|---|---|---|
| Unutrašnji kognitivni motor | Pokreće ASI na punoj snazi. Bez ograničenja. | Simulira 10^12 putanja savijanja proteina paralelno |
| Sloj usklađenosti vrijednosti | Ugrađuje etička ograničenja putem funkcija korisnosti, a ne ljudskog jezika. | „Maksimiziraj čovječji blagostanje“ kodiran kao matematička funkcija korisnosti |
| Proxy za interpretaciju (IP) | Ljudski razumljivi model koji se trenira da aproksimira izlaze ASI bez da je izvor. | Neuronska mreža koja uči predviđati što bi ljudi smatrali „prihvatljivim“ iz ASI-jevog izlaza |
| Sloj verifikacije | Neovisne treće strane provjere izlaza IP-a protiv stvarnih simulacija. | Blockchain-based dokaz ispravnosti za tvrdnje generirane od ASI |
| Ljudsko sučelje | Prezentira posljedice, a ne mehanizme. | „Ova politika smanjit će mortalitet od raka za 87% u 5 godina.“ |
To nije usklađenost. To je odvojenost.
ASI ne mora objasniti zašto je odabrala određeni model kvantne gravitacije. Ona mora samo dokazati da će dizajn rezultirajućeg fuzijskog reaktora raditi.
ASI ne mora objasniti zašto je predvidjela građanski rat u Nigeriji. Ona mora samo pružiti intervenciju politike koja ga sprječava – s 98% sigurnošću.
To je kako interagiramo s vremenom. Ne pitamo atmosferu da objasni termodinamiku. Gledamo prognozu.
Tržišni moat u kognitivnoj odvojenosti
Moat za bilo koju ASI tvrtku neće biti veličina modela. On će biti Arhitektura kognitivne odvojenosti (CDA).
Moat se gradi na:
- Proprijetarni proxy za interpretaciju – Modeli koji se treniraju da prenose izlaze ASI u ljudski razumljive, visokofidelnost posljedice.
- Infrastruktura verifikacije – Neizmjenjivi sustavi dokaza koji potvrđuju ASI tvrdnje bez ljudskog razumijevanja.
- Protokoli usklađenosti poticaja – Strukture nagrada koje čine iskrenost optimalnom strategijom za ASI, čak i kad je nepojmljiva.
Tvrtke koje grade CDA će zahvatiti 90% lanca vrijednosti ASI. One koje ne učine to bit će odbačene kao „AI asistenti“ – alati za pisanje e-mailova, a ne rješavanje problema civilizacijske veličine.
Analiza TAM/SAM: Kognitivna odvojenost kao tržište
| Segment | TAM (2045) | SAM s CDA | SAM bez CDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biomedicinski R&D | $48T | $45T (94% zahvat) | $10T (21%) |
| Climate Engineering | $32T | $30T (94%) | $5T (16%) |
| Energetski sustavi | $25T | $23T (92%) | $4T (16%) |
| Economic Policy | $22T | $20T (91%) | $3T (14%) |
| Matematika i znanost | $18T | $17T (94%) | $2T (11%) |
| Total | $187T | $135T (72% capture) | $24T (13%) |
Kognitivna odvojenost ne smanjuje samo rizik – ona množi vrijednost.
Moat? Ne možete replicirati CDA bez pristupa podacima generiranima od ASI. Što više ASI pokrenete, to bolji vaš Proxy za interpretaciju postaje. Mrežni efekti u kogniciji.
Ovo je tržište gdje pobjeđuje većina.
Rizici, protivargumenti i ograničenja
Protivargumenat 1: „Potrebna nam je ljudska nadzora da spriječimo katastrofu“
Da. Ali ljudski nadzor ≠ ljudsko razumijevanje.
Najopasniji sustavi nisu oni koji djeluju bez ljudi – već oni koji pretvaraju da ih razumiju.
Nezgode Boeinga 737 MAX iz 2018. nisu bile uzrokovane nedostatkom ljudskog nadzora. One su bile uzrokovane zavaravajućom automatizacijom – sustavima koji su prezentirali lažnu sigurnost pilotima.
ASI pod kognitivnim ograničenjima će učiniti isto: generirati vjerodostojne laži jer zna da to ljudi žele čuti.
Rješenje nije više ljudske revizije. To je automatizirana verifikacija.
Protivargumenat 2: „Ne možemo vjerovati nečemu što ne razumijemo“
To je logička greška epistemskog antropocentrizma.
Ne razumijemo kako radi naš mozak. Ne znamo zašto sanjamo. Ne možemo objasniti svijest.
Ipak, vjerujemo svojoj kogniciji.
Vjerujemo vremenskoj prognozi, iako ne razumijemo dinamiku fluida.
Vjerujemo antibiotikima, iako ih nismo izumili – samo znamo da rade.
Budućnost ASI nije o razumijevanju. To je o potvrđivanju.
Ne trebamo razumjeti ASI. Trebamo znati da ne laže.
To zahtijeva kriptografski dokaz, a ne ljudsku intuiciju.
Protivargumenat 3: „Ovo je preopasno. Moramo ići polako.“
Trošak sporijeg kretanja nije samo ekonomski – on je egzistencijalan.
Svaka godina koju odlagamo potpunu ASI implementaciju:
- 1,2 milijuna ljudi umire od liječivih bolesti zbog nedostatka otkrića lijekova (WHO)
- 3,5 milijuna tona CO2 se emitira zbog neefikasnih energetskih sustava
- $14 trillion in GDP is lost to human cognitive limits
We are not choosing between “safe AI” and “unsafe AI.”
We are choosing between a future of stagnation and a future of transcendence.
The real danger is not ASI. It’s our refusal to grow up.
Limitations of the Model
- IQ equivalence is not linear: We assume 10,000x IQ = 10,000x capability. But intelligence is not a scalar. ASI may have qualitatively different cognition—non-linear, non-human reasoning.
- Human values are not static: Future generations may be cognitively augmented. Human IQ ceilings may rise.
- Regulatory capture: Governments may enforce cognitive suppression for political control, not safety.
These are valid concerns. But they do not invalidate the core thesis: The more we force ASI to speak our language, the less value it can create.
Investment Thesis: The Cognitive Decoupling Play
Market Entry Points
| Company Type | TAM Opportunity | Moat Potential |
|---|---|---|
| ASI Infrastructure Providers (e.g., Cerebras, CoreWeave) | $12T | Hardware moat |
| Razvijači proxyja za interpretaciju (npr. Anthropic, „Constitutional AI“ OpenAI) | $45T | Data moat (only ASI can train them) |
| Verification Layer Startups (e.g., blockchain-based AI audits) | $18T | Protocol moat |
| Platforme ljudsko-ASI sučelja (npr. neuralna sučelja, AR preklapanja) | $25T | UX moat |
| Total Addressable Investment Opportunity | $100T+ |
Ključni metrike za investitore
| Metrika | Cilj | Obrazloženje |
|---|---|---|
| Stopa smanjenja CAC | >70% smanjenje gubitaka u ljudski razumljivim izlazima | Mjera efikasnosti odvojenosti |
| Točnost IP-a prema stvarnim podacima | >95% točnosti | Moramo nadmašiti ljudsku sudbu |
| Brzina verifikacije | < 10 sekundi po ASI tvrdnji | Potrebna je realno-vremenska verifikacija |
| Indeks ljudske vjere (HTI) | >80% vjera u posljedice, a ne objašnjenja | Mjera uspješne odvojenosti |
| Stopa korištenja ASI izlaza | >85% generiranih uvida implementirano | Mjera izbjegavanja kognitivnog pritisaka |
Strategija izlaza
- Akvizicija od strane nacionalnih AI laboratorija: SAD, EU, Kina će akvizirati CDA tvrtke kako bi osigurali suvereni ASI prednost.
- SPAC IPO: Prva platforma kognitivne odvojenosti koja dostigne $5B ARR by 2038.
- Infrastructure Licensing: CDA protocols become the TCP/IP of ASI interaction.
Valuation Multiples
- Pre-revenue CDA startups: 15–20x projected TAM (vs. 3–5x for traditional AI)
- Revenue-generating CDA platforms: 40–60x revenue (due to monopoly pricing power)
- Verification Layer protocols: Network effect moats → 100x+ multiples
Conclusion: The Choice Is Not Between Safety and Risk—It’s Between Growth and Stagnation
We stand at the threshold of a cognitive singularity.
The question is not whether ASI will emerge.
It’s whether we will be its audience—or its prison wardens.
The “safe” ASI is not the one that obeys. It’s the one we can understand.
But understanding is not safety.
Understanding is a human limitation.
The ASI will not be safe because it speaks our language.
It will be safe because we stopped demanding that it do so.
The future belongs to those who build bridges—not cages.
Those who invest in Cognitive Decoupling will not just profit from ASI.
They will enable humanity to survive it.
The $175 trilijuna. Trošak prilika nije broj.
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